(no subject)

( Larry wreaking havoc )

Larry's now down to Category 2 as he moves across Queensland. Huge amount of wind damage, but luckily it was fast moving (about 25 km/hr), so flooding isn't expected to be too bad due to lack of sustained rainfall, and it didn't coincide with high tide (though there were mandatory evacuations of low lying areas). The townships in the path have a lot of property damage, some areas up to 50-80% of houses seriously damaged, apparently mainly the older houses that were built before the codes were tightened. But only some minor injuries and looks like no deaths.

Main problem seems to be that it's virtually decimated Australia's banana crops. They're estimating fruit losses of $350 million and about 4000 jobs, more than 80% of the bananas growing in this country are gone.

Another cyclone, Wati, has formed in the Coral Sea, and while further out, may follow the same path over the next few days. On a selfish note, as long as there's no more forming (and we're late in the season now), my forecast is right on. 7 overall, and 3 in the Coral Sea.

(no subject)

( Larry wreaking havoc )

Larry's now down to Category 2 as he moves across Queensland. Huge amount of wind damage, but luckily it was fast moving (about 25 km/hr), so flooding isn't expected to be too bad due to lack of sustained rainfall, and it didn't coincide with high tide (though there were mandatory evacuations of low lying areas). The townships in the path have a lot of property damage, some areas up to 50-80% of houses seriously damaged, apparently mainly the older houses that were built before the codes were tightened. But only some minor injuries and looks like no deaths.

Main problem seems to be that it's virtually decimated Australia's banana crops. They're estimating fruit losses of $350 million and about 4000 jobs, more than 80% of the bananas growing in this country are gone.

Another cyclone, Wati, has formed in the Coral Sea, and while further out, may follow the same path over the next few days. On a selfish note, as long as there's no more forming (and we're late in the season now), my forecast is right on. 7 overall, and 3 in the Coral Sea.

(no subject)

Just some information on the scale of Australia, which may help in understanding where I am in relation in Cyclone Larry.

Australia is roughly the size of the USA. I'm in Sydney, NSW, Cyclone Larry hit about 2600 km (or 1600 miles) north of me in far north Queensland. Basically a bit more than the distance between Boston and New Orleans.

This page shows generally what areas of Australia are affected by tropical cyclones. New South Wales is the only other state to see Cyclones. For NSW they are a rare visitor and usually have weakened by this stage. The Northern Rivers and Mid North Coasts are affected more by flooding rains rather than destructive winds. Once a cyclone moves this far south there is often severe isobar compression between it and high pressure cells to the south. This leads to a vigorous onshore feed that can bring inches of rain. A broad band of strong to gale force winds also develops leading to large ocean swells that can cause problems. And that area is still a long way north of Sydney, basically a day's drive.

(no subject)

Just some information on the scale of Australia, which may help in understanding where I am in relation in Cyclone Larry.

Australia is roughly the size of the USA. I'm in Sydney, NSW, Cyclone Larry hit about 2600 km (or 1600 miles) north of me in far north Queensland. Basically a bit more than the distance between Boston and New Orleans.

This page shows generally what areas of Australia are affected by tropical cyclones. New South Wales is the only other state to see Cyclones. For NSW they are a rare visitor and usually have weakened by this stage. The Northern Rivers and Mid North Coasts are affected more by flooding rains rather than destructive winds. Once a cyclone moves this far south there is often severe isobar compression between it and high pressure cells to the south. This leads to a vigorous onshore feed that can bring inches of rain. A broad band of strong to gale force winds also develops leading to large ocean swells that can cause problems. And that area is still a long way north of Sydney, basically a day's drive.

(no subject)

Floyd's just formed north-west of Broome (Western Australia).

So the seasonal total is now sitting between my two model forecasts (7 for the EPT model, 9 for the SOI model - both models predicted 3 in the Coral Sea (*fingers crossed no more there*)). Go away monsoon trough.

(no subject)

Floyd's just formed north-west of Broome (Western Australia).

So the seasonal total is now sitting between my two model forecasts (7 for the EPT model, 9 for the SOI model - both models predicted 3 in the Coral Sea (*fingers crossed no more there*)). Go away monsoon trough.

first poll

[Poll #694933]

And I know I'm procrastinating...which is probably a sign in itself.

first poll

[Poll #694933]

And I know I'm procrastinating...which is probably a sign in itself.

(no subject)

Spamming a bit today...here's some maps (thanks to erilyn) with Australia overlaying the US and Europe, to give you an idea of the distances. Larry crossed between Cairns and Townsville.

( maps )

(no subject)

Spamming a bit today...here's some maps (thanks to erilyn) with Australia overlaying the US and Europe, to give you an idea of the distances. Larry crossed between Cairns and Townsville.

( maps )